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Reading: Veteran indie dev says success on Steam these days is impossible to predict: 'Why did Balatro take off? You could write a million f***ing essays and none of them will be definitely right'

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Epic Game Journey > Industry > Veteran indie dev says success on Steam these days is impossible to predict: 'Why did Balatro take off? You could write a million f***ing essays and none of them will be definitely right'
Industry

Veteran indie dev says success on Steam these days is impossible to predict: 'Why did Balatro take off? You could write a million f***ing essays and none of them will be definitely right'

May 17, 2025 8 Min Read
8 Min Read
Ben and Dan staring out into space

Dimension 5 Video games’ Dan Marshall has been making video games for round 20 years, and was one of many early indie adopters of Steam when he launched the superb Time Gents, Please! on the platform again in 2009. He is been across the block, then, and he is seen it change dramatically.

Making an attempt to determine the key to blowing up on Steam as an indie is an unimaginable activity. There are such a lot of variables you may obsess over, however on the identical time it nearly appears random. Sure, the sport really must be good, however numerous good video games get utterly neglected on Steam each single day.

“Why did Balatro take off? You possibly can write one million fucking essays about why that took off, and none of them will probably be undoubtedly proper,” Marshall says. “Blind fucking luck. Is it due to the little jaunty pixel jester man? I first picked up on it when it acquired banned for playing. Was that useful to them? Most likely, that is why I knew about it. Till then, I might ignored it as a result of it isn’t my kind of factor. I do not like card video games, however I picked it up after that to see what it is all about.”


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One factor that has change into clear, although, is that the previous strategies of creating an indie hit are now not working.

“I bear in mind Notch mentioning certainly one of my video games again within the day, and making 5 grand that hour. It was astonishing,” he remembers. “Now you possibly can have folks with 20 million followers on Twitter mentioning your recreation or doing a YouTube video about your recreation, offering all of the hyperlinks they want, low cost if you happen to like. It will not budge the needle. It will barely do something.”

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The connection folks have with the accounts they comply with is an enormous a part of the change, he reckons. “They might do something for the particular person with the favored account. That wore off fairly fast, I believe, to the purpose the place now, folks do not click on via. Individuals do not do something with any info they’re given. They see it, they scroll previous it, and it is gone.”

It was at all times robust to get consideration, however “there’s so many extra folks shouting now,” he says. “Every thing has modified. Every thing is tougher work.” There was a interval the place builders might not less than depend on Steam wishlists, however that is all prior to now too.

“The wishlist factor was your primary measure of how good a recreation goes to do, 5 years in the past,” he says. “On the day of launch, you bought an electronic mail saying this recreation you have wishlisted is obtainable. It was mainly a mailing record. And 5 years in the past, that was the metric. Your Develop discuss was why wishlists are your secret to success. Right here we’re, 5 years later, I do not assume it makes a fucking distinction anymore. Similar drawback as Twitter, proper? You get an electronic mail in your inbox saying Dimension 5’s newest recreation is out now. And also you have a look at it and go, ‘Properly, fuck it, that is certainly one of 20 video games I’ve acquired wishlisted that comes out this week.’ It is water off a duck’s again. It simply goes previous you, after which that second’s gone.”

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From the opposite aspect, right here within the land of video games journalism, it additionally was once quite a bit simpler to foretell what was going to explode. And a number of the video games that might have been huge a decade in the past are nonetheless having fun with that type of fortune at the moment. However once you’ve acquired a barrage of latest releases each minute, it is more and more arduous to inform if this random, ugly recreation that lies concerning the existence of vampires goes to float off into obscurity or change into a world obsession.

“Vampire Survivors is basically fascinating to me, as a result of every thing about Vampire Survivors has the air of simply, some bloke made a shitty little recreation,” Marshall says. “Vampire Survivors, being well mannered, seemed unhealthy when it first launched, proper? However clearly struck gold with a vibe that labored with folks and so they discovered it fascinating and handed it on via phrase of mouth. And now each fucking third trailer I see for an indie recreation is functionally Vampire Survivors. It is a complete style that individuals have run with, and the sport itself has performed extremely nicely.”

What is the secret sauce? No person appears to know. “You possibly can drive your self mad making an attempt to recreate it—you by no means will,” he says. “There isn’t any level going, ‘Oh, let’s simply do what Vampire Survivors did’, and put up a bad-looking recreation in early entry for a quid and see what occurs. As a result of no matter that zeitgeist was, it is gone.

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“The core of it was a great recreation that individuals loved enjoying. If it wasn’t, it might have died on its arse. However ‘It is a good recreation that individuals get pleasure from enjoying’ shouldn’t be the answer to that. As a result of, as you already know, there are many good video games which might be enjoyable to play which have had nothing close to Vampire Survivors’ success.”

Perhaps the answer is simply to make a great recreation after which wing it. Hope for one of the best. Pray that Steam’s impossible-to-understand discoverability works in your favour. However that appears like a frightening strategy to run a enterprise.

Marshall’s fairly sanguine about the entire thing. “Dimension 5 has at all times simply plodded alongside and not using a colossal success, which is okay by me. I am nonetheless right here after 20 years, which I think about to be a hit. The bizarre factor is, would I be happier if any of these video games had performed Vampire Survivors numbers? Most likely not, as a result of the highlight and the cash hose brings its entire personal record of issues, proper? You have all of a sudden acquired indignant folks demanding updates. You have acquired a product out that is acquired bugs in it. That is not how I prefer to function in any respect.”

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Reading: Veteran indie dev says success on Steam these days is impossible to predict: 'Why did Balatro take off? You could write a million f***ing essays and none of them will be definitely right'
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